MACROECONOMICS
ECO 102-05 Tuesday - Friday 2:00 - 3:20 BB 124
Fall 2019
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MACROECONOMICS ECO 102-05 Tuesday - Friday 2:00 - 3:20 BB 124 Fall 2019 |
RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS
The research component consists of a proposal and three parts (A, B, C) which together count for a total of 25 % of the course grade. The proposal counts 2.5 percent toward the course grade while each of Parts A, B, C count 7.5 percent toward the course grade. To receive full credit each of Parts A, B, C must include a graphical, mathematical or empirical data component in each part.
OVERVIEW
The research component is designed to focus on the economic characteristics (Part A), the institutional and political environment (Part B) and a macroeconomic policy component (Part C) for a foreign country. The purpose is to provide an opportunity to develop sufficient familiarity with the economic circumstances and governmental and political environment of a nation which is experiencing (or may experience) macroeconomic difficulties-levels of inflation, unemployment or slow growth (or a combination of them) and the policy responses to these situations. Material covered in the text and in class will provide a context for this research activity.
You may choose any foreign country which has its own currency or a country that is a member of the EU (except Great Britain/United Kingdom), other countries in Europe, including Russia, the more developed economies of the Pacific Rim, Australia, New Zealand, and the larger African, Central and South American countries (except Venezula) or Canada. Selecting a small, less developed country is acceptable, but it could increase the difficulty of gathering the necessary data and formulating policies based on the economy and institutions in that country.
PROPOSAL
The proposal is due at the day and time during the week specified in the Course Schedule you sign up for to meet with me in the Student Center cafeteria.
The written and oral proposal will include:
a designation of the country which will be the focus Parts A, B and C
a brief statement of the country's recent political, economic history and the current size of important sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, services) of the county's economy. This summary can also serve as an introduction to Parts A, B and C.
at least three specific sources (publications, or web sites) which are available and likely to provide the information necessary for Parts A, B and C including the website of the official statistical agency for the country. There are links to official statistical web sites listed in the Sources of Information topic below.
Hand in the proposal when we meet during the week the Proposals are due. I will provide a sign-up sheet in class during the preceding week so you can sign up for a time when you and I can meet. Meetings will be in the Student Center near the entrance to Traditions. I anticipate the same country will selected by more than one student; there is no penalty or advantage for multiple students selecting the same country.
The oral proposal will be a brief presentation of the above topics and provide an opportunity to discuss problems and/or concerns either of us have regarding the country you selected. At that time I will review your proposal, make any initial comments and discuss any that may be problematic. I will also grade the proposal and the copy to you with specific comments.
PAPER
The due dates for Parts, A, B, C are specified in the Course Schedule.
Economic Background--Part A:
This portion of the research focuses on the economic characteristics of the country you select. It consists of basic information about the country's recent economic situation and will provide one of the starting points for the recommendations in the Policy component (Part C).
The time period for the information should be for the duration of the country's last business cycle, typically from 2008 to the the most recent data available. For example, if the country is now beginning to experience a change in the direction of its growth of real GDP, changes in the levels of inflation and unemployment, the data for Part A should cover the time period since the country experienced similar levels in the past. The change in real GDP, inflation and unemployment usually move together, but not always in exactly the same time period or order. If in doubt, use the quarterly change in real GDP as the primary indicator of the business cycle. Information about a country's economy is reported at different time intervals, monthly, quarterly, yearly; yearly data is sufficient for this research activity.
The purpose of Part A is to develop familiarity with reasonable data sources, provide a set of data for the country and form the basis for the policy proposals in Part C. Graphical presentation of the following data is encouraged and can be substituted for numeric data on percentages changes. However, the actual levels may be useful in the policy section (Part C). The graphical or tabular information should be accompanied by a brief text describing the important trends in each of the data series. Data to be included are:
year-by-year changes in the level of real GDP and its main components--C, I, G, X, M (real GNP if GDP is not available) and the rates of change in these variables Specify if the data are in current amounts or real terms.
year-by-year changes in the level of employment, unemployment and percentage unemployed
year-by-year changes in the price level--inflation--based on the most widely available measure, including the price level for GDP (GNP)
Political and Institutional Environment--Part B:
The purpose of this component is to present a profile of the government, the central banking authority, the ability and willingness of the political partiy with the largest representation in the legislature (if relevant) to have an effect on the economy and the extent to which government borrowing might affect future policy choices. This part focuses on the political and economic institutions of the country you have selected and will include a description of:
the type of government and the functions of its major governmental components
the country's central bank and its degree of independence from the country's political leadership in its ability to affect money supply and interest rates
the main economic policies of the political party currently in power and their effects on the economy of the country
the tax structure and the type and characteristics major public assistance programs
the level of government debt and its percentage of GDP over the most recent business cycle
Policy Alternatives-Part C:
Part C focuses on developing and analyzing the consequences of a policy alternative to be undertaken by the government and/or central bank identified in Part B to deal with the trends indicated in Part A. Part C should include a discussion of the theoretical and practical effects the policy (or policies)--fiscal, monetary, supply side, or institutional changes--proposed. The proposal may be a single policy change, a set of related policy changes, or a continuation of current policies, depending on the situation in the country you have chosen. If you propose no major policy changes, justify the current policy in terms of the topics listed below.
The purpose of Part C is to show how the data in Parts A and B would affect the policies you propose and any special circumstances related to that effectiveness that affect the current policy environment.
Topics to be covered in Part C:
Construct a Phillips curve for the years in the most recent business cycle and identify significant shidfts of the country's Phillips curve
Use the Phillips curve as a dsescribing or proposing policies relating to:
efficiency (level of utilization of employment and resources)
stability (interest rates and inflation)
growth (change in level of real GDP)
equity (income distribution, access to income resources)
Present and discuss how the policy you have chosen:
could be implemented by the government and/or the appropriate central bank
affects major GDP components as a result of the country's fixed or floating exchange rate
is or is not consistent with the policies proposed by the political party now in power in the country you have chosen
would require changes in the institutions responsible for implementing economic policies
GRADING CRITERIA
There is a one letter increment deduction (for example, the difference between an A and a B or 10 points) from the grade if the proposal and/or research paper component is turned in after their due dates (illness and emergencies excepted).
Turn in a typed double-spaced proposal and parts A, B and C using word processing software; electronic transmission or submission on diskette is not acceptable and will not count toward the grade for that research component.
Proposal
The proposal will be assigned a letter grade based on:
Parts A, B, C
Each part will be graded A+ through F based on the following criteria:
typed, error free grammar, effective word choice, spelling, appropriate format for text, footnotes and bibliography
Omission or major errors or faults or repetitive minor issues in one or more of the above, result in letter increment (difference between a B and a C) deductions; relatively minor issues result in a grade increment (difference between a B+ and a B).
REQUIREMENTS AND PROCEDURES
Tables of Numeric Data and Graphs
Each component A, B, and C must include a empirical data, graphical or mathematical presentation which is related to the specific topics included in that part. Tables of numeric and/or graphs can be prepared using Word or Excel (or similar software), but you can also draw graphs by hand or copy them from published sources if you wish. Include tables and graphs which are less than half a page in length after their first reference in the text. Full page graphs and tables can be inserted as the next page after their first reference in the text. Tables and graphs should have a source typically placed immediately underneath the data or graph which clearly identifies the publication or other information on which it is based. Tables of numeric data and graphs should be referenced explicitly in the text--see Chapter 2 of the text for examples.
The purpose of the numerical data or graph is to allow you to present supporting information for the descriptions and conclusions in parts A, B and C. They allow you to avoid repeating numbers or having to write complicated sentences describing trends. Merely including a table of numeric data or a graph with no analysis or commentary leaves the reader to search through the data or to reach his or her own conclusions which is a distraction and also diminishes her or his attention to the topic you are writing about. In many ways, text and data (tables and graphs) are analogous to effective music videos--both the music and the video together mutually reinforce each other and increase their impact. See Chapter 2 of the text for examples of how to integrate text with data and graphic presentation.
Footnotes
Regarding footnotes, you should document the source of:
The footnote reference (an Arabic number) can be author, work, page number at the bottom of the page or at end of the text or incorporated in the text in parentheses. An example of the latter would be (Baumol and Blinder 67) if you had just quoted their analysis of the implications for legalizing presenting illegal drugs.
Sources of information
Parts A, B, and C should cover the topic you selected for each part based on your research. In writing about the topics, use your own words rather than trying to find a specific quotation for every point you wish to make. Acceptable sources include:
Official websites of the country containing GDP and GDP components and other data for the last business cycle (typically available from the official government website for the country and or international organizations such as the UN or OECD) or published information (magazines and similar sources) Link to official national statistical web sites: http://www.bls.gov/bls/other.htm#international
Include in each part a bibliography (in any standard format) which identifies each source, including personal conversations or e-mail exchanges.
If you encounter difficulties with data availability or other aspects of the research process, I encourage you to let me know. There are usually some relatively straightforward things that can be done, but waiting for the problem to correct itself is not one of them.
Editing and Review
Editing what you have written is typically as important as the initial content, so leave time for a review and changes before you turn in the paper. Exchanging drafts with a classmate is a way to identify sections that need attention or improvement. The tutoring center (http://tutoringcenter.pages.tcnj.edu/humanities/writers-place/) can also provide assistance in writing clearly and correctly.
I am willing to review and make specific comments on a draft of individual parts. Give me the draft in sufficient time so I can comment and you have time to address the comments. I will make specific comments and suggestions, but not assign a grade.
July 18, 2019